All 435 U.S. House seats are up for election this year. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. Governor Andy Beshear (D) signed HB172 into law, extending the filing deadline for partisan candidates from January 7, 2022, to January 25, 2022. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. All rights reserved. 08/10/2022 05:00 AM EDT. The table below includes election results for seats that were open because the incumbent lost re-election in a primary. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); Can a moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat? These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Republicans are enthusiastic about their chances of taking over the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2022. The following table displays members listed as "On the Radar" in the NRCC's Young Guns program for the 2022 election cycle. By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Nine incumbents six Democrats and three Republicans were defeated. [40][41], On February 10, 2021, the NRCC released an initial list of 47 House Democrats whose districts it would target in the 2022 elections. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. The court's order did not affect the July 22, 2022, deadline for candidates qualifying by paying the filing fee. This analysis provides an understanding of how competitive the year's primary elections were using metrics including the number of incumbents who did not seek re-election, the total number of contested primaries, and the number of incumbents with primary challengers. The Vanguard program exists to provide support to candidates running in Republican-leaning open seats. All rights reserved. Given the standard error of about 10 seats for the House forecast and three seats for the Senate model, however, the safest conclusion would be that the balance of power in both chambers would probably be very close. 49 -1. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}})}(); The following table lists incumbents defeated in the 2022 general election for U.S. House.[5]. Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate, Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. United States House of Representatives elections, 2022, Seats open as a result of an incumbent losing a primary, U.S. House races without major party opposition, Non-voting delegate seats up for election in 2022, U.S. House races with two incumbents, 2022, Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2022, Newly created seats after the 2020 census, U.S. House incumbents not running for re-election in 2022. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. The table below lists changes made to election dates and deadlines in the 2022 election cycle. Six states were apportioned one U.S. House district, so no congressional redistricting was required. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. We can use the results from the regression equations in Table 2 to generate conditional forecasts of seat swing in the 2022 House and Senate elections. A recent Quinnipiac poll gave Democrats a nine-point lead on the generic ballot. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. One district was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[3]. From Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. The lions share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating Dear Readers: Tomorrow (Friday, Sept. 23) from noon to 1:30 p.m., the Center for Politics will honor the service of U.S. Capitol Police Officers and D.C. Metropolitan Police Officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with the presentation of the Centers first annual Defender of Democracy awards. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections. Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket. For 2022 to qualify historically as a wave election, Democrats must lose 48 U.S. House seats in 2022. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. In the sections below, you will find: Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964. Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for . Alaska. His name still appeared on the primary ballot. Two predictors largely explain the variation in seat swing in midterm elections: the generic ballot and the number of House and Senate seats defended by the presidents party. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Candidates start in the On the Radar phase before qualifying as a Contender, then as a full-fledged Young Gun. Comments about this content should be directed to the author or syndicate. The final 2022 House ratings from Inside Elections. The darker the square, the greater the likelihood this will occur. Michael F.Q. Gibbs defeated Meijer in the primary. Nineteen races did not feature a Democratic candidate and 12 races did not feature a Republican candidate.[19]. Each partys chances of winning every House seat. Will it be a close race or, um, not? [53][54], The following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election cycle. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Notice any bugs or missing polls? 26th February 2023. There are three tiers of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order to qualify. Heading into the election, Democrats had a 220-212 majority. The charts below show primary competitiveness statistics for the U.S. House from 2014 to 2022. Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable . This is an interactive House map derived from the Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast. We use numbers to expressuncertainty. Figure 1 displays a scatterplot of the relationship between the forecasts generated by the generic ballot model and the actual seat swing in House and Senate elections between 1946 and 2018. Read the Analysis >. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm. He withdrew before the runoff. Joe Kent's margin of victory over Herrera Beutler in the primary. Last updated: Feb. 3, 2023 11:57 a.m. PST 218 for majority 213 DEMS GOP. The U.S. House incumbents listed in the table below announced their candidacy for the same congressional district for the 2022 U.S. House elections. 50. To learn more about our methodology, click here. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. By Leke Baiyewu. Current House. See how each partys forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the House have changed over time. 2022 Kentucky General Election: Live updates and the latest news from polls in Louisville Rae Johnson, Caleb Stultz, Ana Roco lvarez Brez and Stephanie Kuzydym, Louisville Courier Journal. -- Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. You can also view these ratingsas a table. The table below includes election results for districts that were open at the time the state held its congressional primary. Ranging from true toss-ups to just barely on the competitive radar, this map shows as 'undecided' any district not considered 'safe' for the incumbent party in our Consensus 2022 House Forecast. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. [66][67], Cook's 2022 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2020 election cycle:[68]. The following table compared U.S. House race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections prior to the November 2022 elections. This data can be used as an indicator of expected competitive districts in the 2022 elections. The "who will control the House of Representatives" market will pay out $100 for a $350 bet. President Biden's approval numbers posted every weekday, Assessing the Impact of Absentee Voting on Turnout and Democratic Vote Margin in 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, State Polls Give Biden Strong Lead in Electoral College as First Debate Looms By Alan I. Abramowitz, Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, Medicare for All a Vote Loser in 2018 U.S. House Elections By Alan I. Abramowitz, Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year, Not Woke Yet? Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. Analysis>. These battleground races were selected using the following criteria. -- So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. Of the 410 incumbents who ran for re-election, 247 (60.2%) faced contested primaries. In the 2014 primary for Virginia's 7th Congressional District, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R), ranked behind only then-Speaker John Boehner (R) in Republican House leadership, was defeated by economics professor Dave Brat (R). A federal district court, in striking down the state's congressional redistricting plan, postponed the deadline for candidates qualifying by petition in lieu of paying the filing fee from June 22, 2022, to July 8, 2022. The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania suspended the candidate filing period for the primary election, pending resolution of a redistricting dispute. [55] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Source: Data compiled by author Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms. Size of this PNG preview of this SVG file: 424 600 pixels. McLeod-Skinner's margin of victory over Schrader in the primary. No Electoral College majority, House decides election. GOP Rep. Don Bacons race is one to watch. The latest results and live updates on the 2022 midterm House of Representatives elections by state. November 7: Toss-up races projected. The party gained a net of nine districts. There were 30 U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022. In 2020, Republicans won 26 of the 27 seats rated as Toss Up by POLITICO. Visit. As a result of the 2022 elections, Democrats won 30 of those seats, and Republicans won 38. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the Solid, Likely or Lean Republican category putting Republicans only two seats away from the majority, according to the forecast. -- There are currently slated to be 18 Republicans in Biden seats and just 5 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- After overestimating Republican performance in 2022, we wanted to give a short explanation to readers about our thinking in the run-up to the election. The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. Welcome to 338Canada Quebec! The generic congressional vote question does not mention specific candidates. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. Democrats held 30 of those districts, Republicans held seven, and two were newly created districts after the 2020 census. The Chairman, Committee on Media and Public Affairs, House of Representatives, Benjamin Kalu, has won the election for the seat of Bende Federal . House 2022 Live Election Forecast Looking for the GA Senate Runoff Forecast? November 7:CA-13, CA-22, IL-17, MI-07, NV-03, NY-03, NY-19, OH-01, OH-13, PA-07, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34, VA-02 move from Toss-up to Leans R; CA-49, CT-05, WA-08 Leans D to Leans R; IN-01, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, TX-28 Toss-up to Leans D.Read the analysis >. Steve outlines the four factors that have made control of the Senate a coin flip. Current Sabato's Crystal Ball 2022 House forecast. [14] One district Indiana's 2nd was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[15]. Forty-four (44) states adopted congressional district maps. You deserve to hear our thinking. Lucca brings that KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. A net loss of only a handful of House seats and a single Senate seat next November would give Republicans control of both chambers. Each partys seat count in scenarios where it wins the House in our Deluxe models 40,000 simulations. Table 2 displays the results of regression analyses of House and Senate seat change in midterm elections between 1946 and 2018. States were apportioned one U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 midterms statistics the..., deadline for candidates qualifying by paying the filing fee order did affect! Candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 midterm elections between 1946 and 2018 four factors have. 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