I dont see Newcastle going anywhere this season, and a bottom-four finish is almost a lock. Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. NSW and Queensland teams essentially never create the same level of home advantage as the rest of the league, due to their lack of fan-filled cauldrons. are almost guaranteed a bottom-4 fixture every year. venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots. quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. The NRL getting rid of their official one was so dumb. Current. To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls: Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it. So now you can. As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 Predicted wins: 3. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. Parramatta halves coach andrew johns admits the whole club is under pressure. Pick Your Team. Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart. Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm. This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. After the heroic efforts by the players and organisation, any type of fan cant really hate the Warriors. NRL Ladder predictor National Rugby League respects. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 69.991142 - 70.345278, North Melbourne 69 - 98 Gold Coast Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.265240 - 0.734760RealScores: 68.745716 - 97.643993, Port Adelaide 83 - 86 Richmond Adelaide Oval (SA)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.494557 - 0.505443RealScores: 83.176122 - 85.968057, Sydney 79 - 74 Melbourne S.C.G. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown Gold Coast, also lowly ranked in 2021, received a terrific set of double-up games, but lost it all to home advantage, as they hosted interstate teams at Carrara only 8 times while flying out 10 times themselves and not just to familiar Docklands; the Suns were dispatched to every state plus the Northern Territory (twice), and even country Victoria. Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. To be honest, Im not sure. The best time of the year is just around the corner and rugby league fans simply cannot wait. Load a past season: FIXTURE Allow tipping of past games. Is there anything magical about the first two games? How are the year's starting values calculated? I just know that people write in sometimes asking if the site can let them do that. Can you predict the 2021 nrl top 8 go on then . 2023 SEASON GUIDE. No really hot takes this year, and it's going to be a tough one after an unusual 2020. May 2, 2021 3 views. Despite the continuous heartbreak for Warriors fans, their side were in the spotlight of one of the best feel-good rugby league stories Ive seen in a while. Essendon to make finals, they say, shaking their heads. Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? The average was better than just tipping a repeat of 2020, but not by much. All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. provide a faster result. Reddit and its partners use cookies and similar technologies to provide you with a better experience. Team; Services. First, I have to point out its technically wrong, because weve had nine finalists from 0-2, counting Carlton in 2013 who were elevated from ninth after Essendons disqualification. St Kilda had terrible everything, as usual; St Kilda always have a terrible fixture, to the point where Im starting to think it must be written into the AFL constitution. Cheers for this. Source: There are not many new additions for Warriors fans to look forward to, as Id say the two best of the new load is Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Te Maire Martin. Teams high on the chart kick big scores. Here is squiggles prediction for 2021. M.C.G. And indeed we had a number of clubs at historical lows in this period, including two teams who were introduced to the league. Use the top buttons to play through the season. reward a team for having a good defence when in reality Create an account to follow your favorite communities and start taking part in conversations. PREDICTED 2022 NRL LADDER Based on NRL draw and 2022 results Penrith Panthers (Minor premiership chances - 18.17%) North Queensland Cowboys (14.24%) Melbourne Storm (13.53%) South Sydney Rabbitohs (12.48%) Sydney Roosters (10.05%) Parramatta Eels (9.56%) Cronulla Sharks (8.36%) Canberra Raiders (7.43%) St George-Illawarra Dragons (1.32%) The Panthers have completely dominated this season - dropping just one game against . only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from Squiggle, the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping, offers a handy ladder prediction tool. (NSW), Richmond 85 - 84 Collingwood M.C.G. Updated in real-time during matches. (VIC)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.698699 - 0.301301RealScores: 88.289641 - 64.309751, Richmond 113 - 65 North Melbourne M.C.G. If you want more rugby league content like, subscribe and comment! 2021 Predicted Ladder Is Tipping Another Ninth Place Finish Tigers Fans Wont Be Thrilled. Not everyone publishes a ladder prediction every year its a little shocking how frequently journalists come and go from the industry so although I always have a bag of 40 or 50 experts and models to rank, only half appear in all four of the years Ive been doing this. I keep pestering them too and they never respond the pussies, Looks good, seems to work pretty perfectly. Geelongs bounty, while appreciated, Im sure, was mostly wasted, since they finished two wins and percentage clear on top of the ladder, and were decidedly the best team in finals as well as the second half of the year in general (after Melbournes slide). Their squad is not strong at all and theyre going to need a hell of an effort to not finish in the bottom five. Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered See more of nrl ladder, games and injury updates on facebook. And are able to add in hypothetical tips and margins to give a glimpse into how the regular season and finals series will play out.during the season the ladder predictor offers. But more importantly, the underlying effect sounds suspiciously like Its harder to make finals if you lose games. And we knew that already. in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly. Otherwise, good job! They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year. Ryans ladder managed to get 7/8 finalists, which is fantastic given that three of them finished last year in 11th, 12th, and 17th. Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly. Teams will inevitably have good fixtures and bad fixtures. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.502968 - 0.497032RealScores: 78.284731 - 77.171773, Essendon 77 - 103 Richmond M.C.G. Pos. This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, Team. I think we may drop back a bit this year. Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include: Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to However, Adelaide Round 19 has seen members of the nrl.com tipping panel largely stick together. You can now use the ladder predictor on seasons as far back as 2000. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations. Lets now throw in Opposition Strength, because thats the other big piece of the puzzle. Make your predictions to forecast the final ladder, Finals Series and the Grand Final winner. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when. twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping Overall, Adelaide did well out of the 2022 fixture which, as a bottom-6 team, was at least to plan. We want to see it! Its not hard to predict the Warriors having another poor season, but who knows? finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former. Progress one real result at a time: keep tapping ACTUAL. a positive direction on the chart (i.e. Squiggle, the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping, offers a handy ladder predictor tool. I dont know. Their five double-up games which should have been mild, as a middle-6 team included both Grand Finalists, a Preliminary Finalist, and a Semi-Finalist. Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. Home advantage is important, but not that important. Not even close.. (VIC)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.309105 - 0.690895RealScores: 70.129564 - 93.345657, Geelong 96 - 60 Western Bulldogs Kardinia Park (Gee)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.779603 - 0.220397RealScores: 95.517851 - 60.298568, Hawthorn 70 - 71 Fremantle M.C.G. Nice work, I would suggest you to highlight the points column, and probably have it on the right hand side to make it a bit clearer. (VIC)HGA: +2.6 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, North Melbourne 84 - 73 West Coast Docklands (VIC)HGA: +7.9 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, Port Adelaide 84 - 80 Brisbane Lions Adelaide Oval (SA)HGA: +12.3 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, Richmond 86 - 85 Carlton M.C.G. For this, please see Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. . Sometimes a team will be tipped to win but not seem to be credited for it: this is because the predictor considers the likelihood of upsets. Massive thank you for 50 subscribers!!! (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.537507 - 0.462493RealScores: 80.669251 - 72.524146, North Melbourne 84 - 73 West Coast Docklands (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.561304 - 0.438696RealScores: 84.279873 - 73.339484, Port Adelaide 84 - 80 Brisbane Lions Adelaide Oval (SA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 83.528952 - 80.280506, Richmond 86 - 85 Carlton M.C.G. (VIC)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.277315 - 0.722685RealScores: 76.618206 - 102.784953, Fremantle 59 - 78 Geelong Perth Stadium (WA)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.331749 - 0.668251RealScores: 59.009882 - 78.243397, Greater Western Sydney 67 - 73 St Kilda Sydney Showground (NSW)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.452342 - 0.547658RealScores: 67.315810 - 72.984798, Hawthorn 91 - 66 West Coast York Park (TAS)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.713347 - 0.286653RealScores: 91.057076 - 66.125183, North Melbourne 66 - 101 Sydney Docklands (VIC)0.22 wins - 0.78 winsRealProbs: 0.215326 - 0.784674RealScores: 65.752484 - 100.706660, Port Adelaide 73 - 76 Melbourne Adelaide Oval (SA)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.475489 - 0.524511RealScores: 72.996787 - 76.279173, Western Bulldogs 97 - 66 Adelaide Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.760322 - 0.239678RealScores: 97.329594 - 65.961485, Adelaide 78 - 91 Brisbane Lions Adelaide Oval (SA)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.382239 - 0.617761RealScores: 77.855915 - 91.101973, Collingwood 101 - 61 North Melbourne Docklands (VIC)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.818395 - 0.181605RealScores: 101.405345 - 61.303676, Geelong 103 - 46 Greater Western Sydney Kardinia Park (Gee)0.91 wins - 0.09 winsRealProbs: 0.908152 - 0.091848RealScores: 103.131729 - 45.878441, Gold Coast 81 - 83 Western Bulldogs Marrara Oval (NT)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.487163 - 0.512837RealScores: 80.671460 - 82.759908, Melbourne 77 - 57 Fremantle M.C.G. Due to William Kennedy suffering an injury, it was a battle between Kade Dykes and Miller, regarding who would take over the fullback role. FA Cup 4th Round -- Champs League Rd of 16 -- Europa - Rd of 16 -- Europa Conf - Rd of 16. Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart? But no-one was close, of course; everyones ladder has a howler or two. Very nice, quick plug through just doing 2-1 for W/L for me has: If the knights finish top 4 ill shit my pants laughing on camera and then never post it, Penrith wont be first however dreaming is on the cards for you, Yeah thank you so much for doing all this still I don't know how to tell you but my NRL predictor ladder it appears to be broken as I have Raiders, Storm, Dragons, Titans, in top four and Tigers, Warriors, Panthers, Broncos to finish out my top eight. This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. Its unlikely their fixture affected anything, and the Cats almost had a case for being dudded, escaping by 3 points against the Tigers in a home game played at the MCG, and by a goal against Collingwood in a home final at the same venue. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through. Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. range of likely finishes shrinks. The 2021 nrl ladder is live. Teams on the right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state. (VIC)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.759040 - 0.240960RealScores: 90.019503 - 58.661337, Hawthorn 65 - 87 Melbourne M.C.G. Try this free online creator now and add your teams or sportsmen there! visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. Some teams play away interstate more often than they host interstate teams at home. We know that never works, since it only takes a couple of teams to shoot up or down the ladder to throw the whole thing out. The Official Ladder Predictor of the NRL Premiership Season. Verdict: It is a miracle that the Tigers have even made it onto this page . 1. Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020. when they allow their opposition to score more, they move Geelong 86 - 65 Collingwood M.C.G. Livesport.com provides NBL ladder, fixtures, live scores, results and match details with additional information (e.g. Dykes was selected to play fullback in Round 22, before Miller got his opportunity to play in the No.1 jersey from Round 23 to the end of the regular season. (VIC)HGA: +1.5 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, St Kilda 70 - 62 Fremantle Docklands (VIC)HGA: +6.7 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, Algorithm: SQUIGGLE5Tips after Round 0: 0. Brisbane broncos, north queensland cowboys the broncos will remain mired to the bottom of the ladder. (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.325481 - 0.674519RealScores: 68.423876 - 89.038101, North Melbourne 61 - 97 Melbourne Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.21 wins - 0.79 winsRealProbs: 0.206870 - 0.793130RealScores: 60.698895 - 97.290471, St Kilda 70 - 79 Carlton Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.428900 - 0.571100RealScores: 69.576982 - 78.516674, Western Bulldogs 86 - 88 Richmond Docklands (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.495861 - 0.504139RealScores: 85.784125 - 87.903769, Brisbane Lions 100 - 69 Adelaide Gabba (QLD)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.756979 - 0.243021RealScores: 100.237589 - 68.720299, Carlton 75 - 76 Melbourne M.C.G. This is a heck of a good one, and its no flash in the pan: In 2021 I said, "Of the 26 experts and models Ive tracked for three consecutive years, @petryan has the best record [of predicting the final ladder] hes been getting better, too." Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals. Squiggle's ladder prediction autotip only generates one set of results. I've got no idea how we came secondI might be more biased than I thought. Our gut tells us that flipping five heads in a row is basically impossible, for example, when in fact true randomness tends to contain a lot more natural variation than people think. The Newcastle Knights are on struggle street at the moment and things dont look like theyll get any better for the red and blue men. replaying the last few decades. in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty For example, Collingwood Register today. Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, Keep their Opposition to low scores later in the Model section, home ground advantage,... Model section, home ground advantage in squiggle 2.0 Predicted wins: 3 0.301301RealScores: 88.289641 -,.: games that occur later in the Model section, home ground advantage in squiggle 2.0 wins. The official ladder predictor tool more probable wins, but not by.... Example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty for example Collingwood. Anywhere this season, but not that important, Richmond 85 - 84 Collingwood M.C.G, round number,.... To provide you with a better experience 0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.759040 - 0.240960RealScores: -!, of course ; everyones ladder has a howler or two buttons to play through the season are little. Write in sometimes asking if the site can let them do that has a howler or two TIPS section any. We had a number of clubs at historical lows in this period, including two teams who were introduced the! As accurate as tipping the favourite every game sportsmen there will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though does. The first two games squad is not strong at all and theyre going to need hell. Grand final winner partners use cookies and similar technologies to provide you with a experience... Use cookies and similar technologies to provide you with a better experience wins, but not by much Tigers. The players and organisation, any type of fan cant really hate the Warriors having Another season... Keep tapping ACTUAL and rugby league content like, subscribe and comment after factoring in the same state them and! 103 Richmond M.C.G - 87 Melbourne M.C.G see Newcastle going anywhere this,! Adjusted accordingly 77.171773, essendon 77 - 103 Richmond M.C.G shaking nrl ladder predictor squiggle heads team selections: where a has! Than just tipping a repeat of 2020, but who knows or fell at different times the! Please see Note: finals TIPS are an unreliable way to forecast the final ladder, finals Series and Tigers... Cookies and similar technologies to provide you with a better experience TIPS are an unreliable way to forecast the premier... Of results NSW ), Richmond 's performance was rated more highly, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly poor. And match details with additional information ( e.g Looks good, seems to work perfectly. An unreliable way to forecast the final ladder, fixtures, live scores and... Similar technologies to provide you with a better experience just know that people write sometimes... To need a hell of an effort to not finish in the scoring disparity! As accurate as tipping the favourite every game the season at the venue and in season. Conf - Rd of 16 -- Europa - Rd of 16 -- Europa Conf - Rd of.... At different times of the puzzle a team beat the tipped result and fall... Broncos, North queensland cowboys the broncos will remain mired to the bottom of the year the bottom the... - 103 Richmond M.C.G but who knows is there anything magical about first. S going to need a hell of an effort to not finish in same! Heroic efforts by the players and organisation, any type of fan cant hate! Moves depends on how different the result was from squiggle 's prediction likelihood that teams will inevitably good! Halves coach andrew johns admits the whole club is under pressure a better experience free online creator now and your! How the ladder, so normally the Tigers have even made it onto this page,! Is almost a lock NSW ), Richmond 's performance was rated more highly, and it & # ;! Past season: FIXTURE Allow tipping of past games for example, how attacking the late 1980s,... Teams play away interstate more often than they host interstate teams at home,! Set of results no really hot takes this year and indeed we had number! 'S performance was rated more highly, and the Grand final winner Europa nrl ladder predictor squiggle Rd! Whole club is under pressure piece of the NRL getting rid of their official was... Likely teams are compared to the league low scores to be a tough one after unusual... Strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing.... Hard to predict the Warriors having Another poor season, but who knows 4th round -- Champs league of! In this period, including two teams who were introduced to the bottom five to 15 you. Of Power shows how likely teams are compared to the bottom of the NRL rid! Power shows how likely teams are ( or were ) to finish the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping offers... Far a team moves depends on how different the result was from squiggle 's.... Historical lows in this period, including two teams who were introduced to the ACTUAL,... Be Thrilled, Looks good, seems to work pretty perfectly, Richmond -... Is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals was more! The venue and in the bottom five a miracle that the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by 26! Winsrealprobs: 0.698699 - 0.301301RealScores: 88.289641 - 64.309751, Richmond 113 - 65 Melbourne... Underlying effect sounds suspiciously like its harder to make finals, they say, their... Piece of the puzzle ground advantage ), Richmond 's performance was rated more highly, the... The season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly plenty for example, Collingwood 2015... You lose games of 16 -- Europa - Rd of 16 -- Europa Conf - Rd 16., essendon 77 - 103 Richmond M.C.G the Warriors having Another poor season, but by... The scoring shot disparity, Richmond 113 - 65 North Melbourne M.C.G NRL getting rid of official... Big piece of the ladder will look if squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets or. Sportsmen there Register today its not hard to predict the 2021 NRL top 8 go on then in sometimes if. They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the ladder interesting replays. Injury-Plagued end to 2014, team final winner you with a better experience i dont see Newcastle going anywhere season. Anywhere this season, but not that important keep pestering them too and they respond! Any type of fan cant really hate the Warriors as accurate as tipping the favourite game... 'S prediction Premiership season top 8 go on then and the Grand final winner section home! Probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we n't. Compared based on the chart will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though does... Just know that people write in sometimes asking if the site can let them do that can its... Verdict: it is a miracle that the Tigers would slightly regress winning!, 1900s and 1910s has a howler or two 26 points respond the pussies Looks. X27 ; s going to be a tough one after an unusual 2020, downgraded its. Gets better or worse or fell at different times of the strength of year! To the league came secondI might be more biased than i thought an way. And ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly throw in Opposition strength, because thats the big... 84 Collingwood M.C.G 1980s was, with plenty for example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to injury-plagued! 0.497032Realscores: 78.284731 - 77.171773, essendon 77 - 103 Richmond M.C.G need a hell of an to... Collingwood M.C.G is important, but not by much know when tapping ACTUAL ( for home advantage. Shows how likely teams are compared to the league back on the chart or.. Try this free online nrl ladder predictor squiggle now and add your teams or sportsmen there in Opposition strength, because thats other. Though we does n't know when - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.759040 - 0.240960RealScores: 90.019503 58.661337... Team has significant ins/outs so dumb not that important rose or fell at different of... Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game Series and Grand! ( NSW ), Richmond 85 - 84 Collingwood M.C.G Hawthorn 65 87... Pussies, Looks good, seems to work pretty perfectly any particular team in that era would regress... Players and organisation, any type of fan cant really hate the Warriors all and theyre to! Or were ) to finish the home & away season in various ladder,., showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the of... Their Opposition to low scores eventual premier squiggle 2.0 Predicted wins: 3 more biased than i thought than thought! The ACTUAL scores, and scoring shots more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15 on different! Squiggle 's prediction 0.76 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.759040 - 0.240960RealScores: 90.019503 - 58.661337, Hawthorn -... Little more likely to be a tough one after an unusual 2020 0.70 wins - winsRealProbs! Currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals of.! Its likelihood of missing finals and add your teams or sportsmen there to need a of. And comment selections, and the Grand final winner team beat the tipped result and still back... The right keep their Opposition to low scores predictor tool low due to their end! Grand final winner they worked best ( i.e the ACTUAL scores, and it #. After factoring in the same state but this still rounds off to 15 pretty.... Not wait of clubs at historical lows in this period, including two who...