Since about 2008, Podhorzer calculates, the southern states at the heart of the red nation have again fallen further behind the blue nation in per capita income. Lightyear (Feature) by Chris Evans Blu-ray . Thats the provocative conclusion of Michael Podhorzer, a longtime political strategist for labor unions and the chair of the Analyst Institute, a collaborative of progressive groups that studies elections. Blue State May Finally Turn Red, Polling Shows (ConservativeJournal.org) - The midterms are just around the corner. [2] Despite their vastly different approaches to the pandemic, economic challenges, and cultural conflict, all of these governors will almost certainly achieve the same result: reelection. And downstate voters know it. It doesnt matter if Im in Clay County, in Louisville, Ill. He won in remote downstate counties like Alexander, in more populated places like Peoria and Rock Island counties and in university-dominated counties like Champaign, Knox and DeKalb. At least 90% of voters from the opposing party in each state are sticking with their partys candidate. The state was fewer than5 percentage pointsaway from picking Bernie Sanders as its 2020 Democratic presidential nominee. Abbott began busing undocumented immigrants to other states last spring and has steered $4.4 billion toward his Operation Lone Star mission along the Texas-Mexico border moves that drove Democrats to accuse him of spending taxpayer money on political stunts. In Texas and Florida, independents are marginally adding to the incumbents lead, whereas in California and New York, disapproval from independents is not enough to overcome the Democrats large numerical advantages. During the seven decades of legal Jim Crow segregation from the 1890s through the 1960s, the principal goal of the southern states at the core of red America was defensive: They worked tirelessly to prevent federal interference with state-sponsored segregation but did not seek to impose it on states outside the region. Only 19%of Texas voters believe there is frequent voter fraud, yet lawmakers cemented Texas status as thehardestplace to vote in the country by restricting early voting options and empowering partisan poll watchers. Among Democrats, Newsom (7%) lags behind Vice President (and fellow Californian) Kamala Harris (14%) in the large field that includes Biden, and it is far from clear he would be willing to challenge either Harris or Biden. These maps offer a chance to look beneath the. By Nicole Narea @nicolenarea Nov 11, 2022, 10:04am EST Tonight Texans sent a message that they want to keep the Lone Star State the beacon of opportunity that we provided over the past eight years, Abbott wrote on Twitter on Tuesday evening. To the extent that planning to move may require at least three of those steps, not very many respondents are close to moving. Until Republicans figure out how to win again in Chicagos suburbs, the party and voters who support it in nearly 85% of the states counties run the risk of history repeating itself in 2022. But because I wouldnt say anything about guns and abortion, oh, they was deathly against me, Spencer said. That doesnt mean that Americans are condemned to fight one another again as they did after the 1850s. (ConservativeJournal.org) The midterms are just around the corner. A two-Democrats in the Senate, Biden-voting blue state. . are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, and Newsmax World are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Schaumburg businessman Gary Rabine is also in the mix as the lone potential suburban entrant. The path all four governors are taking to reelection is paved with partisanship. Dan] Patrick and all the others.. Claremont McKenna College Life expectancy is nearly three years greater in the blue (80.1 years) than the red (77.4) states. All of these things combine to make this rural-urban divide much greater, he said. On any political map, Illinois is a reliable blue state that has elected Democratic governors four of the last five elections and last backed a Republican presidential candidate before Michael Jordan was winning championships in Chicago. The margin of error in the national sample is 3; for each of the four states examined extensively in this report, it is 4. Nobody ever talks about that. . The Texas Tribune is a nonprofit statewide news organization dedicated to keeping Texans informed on politics and policy issues that impact their communities. Democrats blamed Republican-appointed regulators for failing to prepare the grid for disasters. But although Arizona is blue for now, Volgy isn't committed to that. Further highlighting this polarization: While relatively competitive overall, only four states (FL, NC, OH, VA) were decided by less than 5% popular vote margin in the 2012 presidential election. Whats becoming clearer over time is that the Trump-era GOP is hoping to use its electoral dominance of the red states, the small-state bias in the Electoral College and the Senate, and the GOP-appointed majority on the Supreme Court to impose its economic and social model on the entire nationwith or without majority public support. The color purple represents their multi-faceted makeup. After years of projections that congressional reapportionment in 2020 would see red states lose political power to blue states that have been inundated with illegal and legal immigration over the . That's devastating for blue states, and could soon tip the balance of power in Congress in 2022. His public schedule has had a distinct downstate flavor since the summer. Because of this reality, these states can switch from supporting one party to the other, from election to election. Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. Thats the same kind of feeling that the Democrats have in Texas, that Democrats have in Utah, that you have a state that is not responsive to your needs. STATE OF THE ECONOMYTAKING HITS AND RUNNING UP DEFICITS. And yet, in the states more recent political past, Democrats are the ones with the upper hand as blue Illinois gets bluer, and red Illinois gets redder and angrier that they dont have a voice statewide. Lilliana Mason, a Johns Hopkins University political scientist, told me that the experience of Jim Crow segregation offers an important reference point for understanding how far red states might take this movement to roll back civil rights and libertiesnot that they literally would seek to restore segregation, but that they are comfortable with a time when states had laws so entirely different that they created a form of domestic apartheid. Prior to the 2020 presidential election, I coauthored Blue Metros, Red States: The Shifting Urban-Rural Divide in America's Swing States. Regardless of the margins Rauner put up in them, they werent enough to overcome Pritzker winning four out of five of the collar counties and taking Cook County by historic margins. Receive breaking news and original analysis - sent right to your inbox. By that. We settled down in southwest Houston a community filled with signs written in Chinese characters, the rhythmic sizzle of al pastor on the grills of dueling taco trucks, and the low vibration of chopped and screwed bass pulsing from car speakers. The biggest news is that the exodus from progressive-led states hasn't slowed . Yet, concerns about personal finances do not appear to be driving voting decisions in the gubernatorial races in these states. Texas40 electoral votes are on the table. That kind of track record can make the state actually look geographically deep red even though Democrats currently hold every statewide elected office. (Some red-state Republicans are even distantly echoing Calhoun in promising to nullifythat is, defyfederal laws with which they disagree.) But so many of today's states have a partisan voting index . "We are at best a purple state" Grumbach reached a similar conclusion in a recent paper analyzing trends in small-d democracy across the states. However, we present in this graph only the preferences of respondents who belong to the candidates party, and omit the responses of independents and anyone who expressed a cross-party preference.[3]. Several companies and well-known figures have made highly publicized moves from states like New York and California to destinations like Florida and Texas. The sudden shift could predict an upcoming red wave, but its too early in the race to say that with certainty. Chris Chu de Len is a native Texan and community organizer. In the blue state of Oregon's 5th Congressional District, where it's been over a quarter-century since a Republican last won election, GOP nominee Lori Chavez-DeRemer is locked in a very. In any event, our purpose is not predictive. The big blue states of California and New York actually lost people over the last decade, meaning more people moved out than moved in. Sign up now to get the Washington Examiners breaking news and timely commentary delivered right to your inbox. . Amplify your impact and donate now. Emersons poll places Drazan in a slim two-point lead. (April 26), Get a digest of our takes on current events every day, Democrats still face daunting historical odds, voted Democratic only once in a presidential election since 1948, not occupied both U.S. Senate seats since 1952, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Rather than just protecting slavery within their borders, the Southern states sought to control federal policy to impose their vision across more of the nation, including, potentially, to the point of overriding the prohibitions against slavery in the free states. Housing is often more affordable in red states; partly for that reason, homelessness has become endemic in many big blue cities. Greg Abbott at his watch party in McAllen on Nov. 8, 2022. I was born in Houston to immigrants from Hong Kong and Mexico. The data for this survey comes from the CMC-Rose Institute Fall 2022 Poll. It is a multipronged, fundamentally antidemocratic movement that has built a solidifying base of institutional support through conservative media networks, evangelical churches, wealthy Republican donors, GOP elected officials, paramilitary white-nationalist groups, and a mass public following. Baileys lawsuit is pending in Sangamon County Circuit Court, where it was consolidated with other legal challenges to Pritzkers pandemic orders. In 2018, Pritzker made easy work out of predecessor Bruce Rauners reelection bid, routing the one-term Republican by nearly 16 percentage points. Its a phenomenon examined in stunning detail in the documentary Blue to Red: The Shifting of America airing Sunday, July 31, at 9 p.m. Eastern on Newsmax. Although Texas is on the cusp of turning blue, these same lawmakers banned abortion after about six weeks and restricted voting rights, culminating in possibly the most conservative legislative. I had a real good construction business going, but I seen a year ago that those days were over because Im a Democrat. A lot of people downstate feel thats whats happened.. This is not a metaphor; it is a geographic and historical reality., To Podhorzer, the growing divisions between red and blue states represent a reversion to the lines of separation through much of the nations history. Virginia remains a blue state because, all things being equal, in statewide federal races, the Democratic nominee starts off with a clear advantage. More than half of Republicans (58%) and Democrats (55%) said they thought about moving to a state where the government better reflects their political and policy values, while 69% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans considered moving . Five of Illinois 15 least vaccinated counties are in Baileys state Senate district, state public health data show. Like other analysts who study democracy, he views the Trump faction that now dominates the Republican Partywhat he terms the MAGA movementas the U.S. equivalent to the authoritarian parties in places such as Hungary and Venezuela. If Newsom or DeSantis make bids, it is clear they would use their respective states as models for what the nation as a whole should become. Iowa, Ohio, and ME-2 are trending red and have gone pretty deep in that direction, Texas is trending blue but the Democrats still aren't getting as much of the vote there as in NC. Competing Visions in the Nation's Largest States The governors of the nation's four largest states, California, Texas, Florida, and New York, face voters in 2022. 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