And as we warm even further, it makes it that much harder for our infrastructure, our water storage, to recover. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. This story was reported by Luke Runyon on KUNC. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. During the 2000-2005 drought, Lake Powell lost 13 million acre-feet of water and dropped almost 100 feet. This cookie is used to detect and defend when a client attempt to replay a cookie.This cookie manages the interaction with online bots and takes the appropriate actions. According to the National Park Service, contaminants from the newly exposed shorelines are reentering warm, shallow areas and becoming more concentrated. Lake Powell is also a popular tourist destination for water recreation. As snowpack runoff disappeared into dry ground instead of hitting the reservoirs, engineers calculated a 79% chance Lake Powell will fall below its minimum target water height of 3,525 feet above sea level next year. The river carried an average of 14.7 million acre feet from 1906 through 2015. And it doesnt allow ratepayers who rely on power production from the canyon to be forward-thinking and operate under conditions of certainty., Cities, farmers and fish all need certainty when it comes to water, and this is the opposite of certainty, Hawes said. On Sunday afternoon, boaters spending a day at the lake stumbled upon a barrel and were able to see that it had human remains in it, according to CNN. Stock image of Alstrom Point, Lake Powell. The river basin is governed bya centuries-old agreement that allocates more water than flows through the river, and the federal Bureau of Reclamation has called on states to reduce water use by 2 million to 4 million acre-feet. JOHN DANKOSKY: So obviously, people are preparing for worse times. JOHN DANKOSKY: This is Science Friday. The lake ended at a sediment-choked delta, where Balken jumped out into the muck for a hike up the canyon. During those 25 years, the rivers annual flow averaged 13.2 million acre feet a bit less than what the Bureau of Reclamations studies have predicted it would carry by 2050 thanks to warming weather and other climate changes, Ostler noted. Are experts looking at this saying, its just going to get worse in the Colorado River basin? And youre able to say, oh, the rivers high, or the river is low. LUKE RUNYON: Well, I dont have a crystal ball. Newsweek previously reported that Lake Mead's dead pool level is 895 feet, while Lake Powell's is 3,370. The future of the reservoir is largely uncertain, but climate science and recent actions by the government are providing some hints as to what might happen in the near future. And by themselves they are no longer sufficient to meet the area needs. Its 90% of the water supply to Las Vegas, 50% to Phoenix, effectively 100% to Tucson and 25% to Los Angeles, said Udall. LUKE RUNYON: Well, this is kind of a narrative or storyline in the basin that has gotten a lot more attention recently, is how have tribal users been excluded from agreements in the past? It stores water as part of the Colorado River Compact and produceselectricity through the hydroelectric turbines in Glen Canyon dam. Im John Dankosky, and now its time to check in on the state of science. Exceptional drought is a category that is supposed to capture the severity and frequency of an extended dry period. Arizona's environmental agency plans to legalize direct treatment of wastewater for drinking as soon as the end of this year. Such is the nature of the climate change beast that we have unleashed.. The finding is ominous for the region's future drinking-water supply. LUKE RUNYON: Well, Arizona is in the line for the steepest cuts from the Colorado River. He spent two years at Aspen Public Radio, mainly reporting on the resort economy, the environment and the COVID-19 pandemic. The dropping water levels are indicated by white marks on the canyon wall, often likened to a bathtub ring. So when Lake Mead declines, certain policy triggers are put in place. Correction: A previous version of this story indicated that 3,490 feet is Lake Powell's "dead pool" level. Experts say that the reservoir may dry up completely in a few decades. a study published in the journal Science said the current dry period in the Southwest is one for the record books, and that its "megadrought-like trajectory" is fueled by natural variability superimposed on . Falling water levels at Lake Mead and Lake Powell have been concerning for several years. In addition to the power the lake generates directly, it is a major source of grid resilience when full, serving as a quick backup source in cases where solar or wind power cant meet demand. A . We don't know if we can release water to meet downstream requirements. The TiPMix cookie is set by Azure to determine which web server the users must be directed to. The water levels behind the Colorado Rivers biggest dams are fast-approaching or already at record lows. The level has risen over the winter months due to rainfall and particularly cold weather to hit parts of the U.S. Water levels at . Is climate change the same thing as global warming? A drought that has gripped the Southwest is creeping the nation's two largest reservoirs toward a dead pool, which would have catastrophic consequences for water users in the Colorado River's lower basin. Hes a reporter at KUNC, based in Fort Collins, Colorado. For those talks to start in the middle of another record-breaking dry period should make it clear to everyone involved: the future of the Colorado River is all about learning to live with less. Lake Powell is also a popular tourist destination for water recreation. Lake Powell is supposed to buffer water supply during times of drought [and] it is not performing that function now. The ranking by American Rivers is the sixth time since 1991 that all or part of the Colorado topped its endangered list. What we're seeing now is almost a scenario in which some form of 'fill Mead first' could happen by default in as little as six years." Between the drought years of 2000-2005, Lake Powell lost 13 . We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. Lake Powell's feeble condition is part of a climate reckoning in the West that links water, ecosystems, food production, and energy generation. More than four scientific studieshave pinned a large part of the decline on human climate change. At this stage a significant amount of Glen Canyon . In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. Powell is not drying out in a vacuum.. Levels on Lake Powell, which stores water for the. The water level on Lake Powell is 100 feet from its high mark in August 2013. It doesn't strain the mind to imagine us losing power within a year. The lake that once covered 400 square miles has shrunk 90 percent, leaving behind oxygen-deprived, highly salinized water with a rotten-egg odor that permeates the surrounding area. So, what would happen if Lake Powell dried up? "The West might look different," said Hasencamp. Kuhns analysis is the worst case, said Pat Tyrrell, Wyoming state engineer who has been involved in the Upper Basin water talks. Newsweek previously. And really, what were seeing in the basin is that warming of just a couple degrees has the potential to completely upend how the water cycle functions in the Southwest. Work on the dam that created Lake Powell began in 1956 and was finished in 1966. Frankel criticizes water managers for their inaction in the face of those trends. In the year 2000, the two reservoirs were 95% full. 40 fun events happening in Tucson this weekend Feb. 23-26 , Opinion: Help protect Lake Mead and Colorado River water, Colorado River runoff forecast keeps dropping, Warm weather reducing Colorado River runoff, study finds, Feds back off from Lake Mead water demand, Businesses, residents paid to save water in this Arizona valley, Tucson to leave nearly 20% of its CAP water in Lake Mead, 'Toilet to tap' water treatment will soon be legal in Arizona, officials say, Big snowstorms put Colorado River drought plan on ice, Colorado River tops group's 'endangered' list again, CAP-California water deal that Arizona nixed provokes ongoing conflict, Water bailout? As water levels fall in the reservoirs and river, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has implemented a tiered shortage system to reduce the allocated amount certain regions in the lower basin receive from the river to preserve water. These cookies help provide anonymized information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc. And so this creates a lot of potential problems downstream in the Grand Canyon, it creates management problems for the reservoir itself in Glen Canyon, and most importantly, it jeopardizes the upper[Colorado River]basins ability to meet its delivery obligation downstream, Balken said. And you know, those are cutbacks that users are actually going to feel and that municipal leaders, farmers, tribal users in Arizona are having to plan for right now. Get up-to-the-minute news sent straight to your device. Officials have already taken some stopgap measures to avert the lake getting down to the pivotal 3,490-foot mark. LinkedIn sets this cookie to store performed actions on the website. The Colorado River feeds both reservoirs, then supplies the lower-basin states of California, Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico with water. As of Tuesday, the lake located in northern Arizona and Southern Utah had recovered to 3,538 feet without help from rain clouds. Water levels have been getting lower and lower, and for the first time ever, a shortage seems almost certain. What does the forecast look like? Asthe latest round of federal forecastsfor the rivers flow shows, its plausible, maybe even likely, that the situation could get much worse this year. Even though conditions may be evolving and getting even worse, we dont really have a way to depict that, because D4, thats that ceiling, she said. If that does come to pass, Tyrell said he is fairly confident we can deal with worst case scenario if it ever happens.. Things will have to change in how we do business.. By the end of the summer, its projected to be even lower, at 29% of its capacity, which is a record low. Weve seen records set when it comes to dwindling soil moisture. So Im guessing over the next several years, as policies are negotiated, youre going to hear a lot more about how tribes are being involved in that process. But there is still this fundamental supply-demand imbalance in the Colorado River basin. Water managers in the four Upper Basin states and the federal government are expected to start monthly planning calls this year to consider options for propping up the reservoir if needed. And thats left Lake Powell at 34% of its capacity. Understanding and explaining the depth of the dryness is up to climate scientists throughout the basin. The Department of the Interior had asked the seven states of the Colorado River Compact to come up with a plan to cut between 2 and 4 million acre-feet of water by January. It also helps in fraud preventions. If allocations from the Colorado River dip below the levels necessary for some customers to receive hydropower, the real question [becomes] what can our grid accommodate from a hydropower perspective in terms of compensating production losses from Glen Canyon? said Justin Mankin, an assistant professor of geography at Dartmouth College. It is not creating certainty in the water market, Mankin said. Dead pool is 3,370 feet. The fact that they're becoming involved in this manner points to real concerns that they must have and they must view the situation as one of extreme difficulty that requires them to act more directly. With modest reductions in flow, they would be meaningful.. This website uses cookies to improve your experience. People should definitely not feel like the agencies managing the Colorado River have it under control, he said. Applying data from three droughts from a 25-year period starting in 1988, it predicted that even with little new growth in that basin, a moderate drought would trigger shortages of 350,000 to 500,000 acre-feet. This cookie is installed by Google Universal Analytics to restrain request rate and thus limit the collection of data on high traffic sites. New York, NY 10004. ET: The dead pool level of Lake Powell has been corrected. Subscribe to our Daily Headlines newsletter. This cookie is used for storing country code selected from country selector. The river is a lifeline, providing water to more than . This is prompting a lot of people to ask whats going to happen next. The year as I write is now 2018. Lake Mead and Lake Powell, for water. The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. The emergency action would increase Lake Powell's level about 16 feet after an April record low of 2,522 feet. Water managers across the region are on the clock to come up with new rules for how to share Colorado River water before 2026, when the current guidelines expire. Lake Powell, the country's second-largest reservoir and a key source of water and power for much of the West, is more parched than ever.Earlier this month, the lake dropped below 25% capacity . Fidelity to the original aired/published audio or video file might vary, and text might be updated or amended in the future. In addition, the river itself experiences more evaporation. The dryness is currently off the charts in parts of the watershed. The droughts that we are seeing are becoming that much more severe because of the temperature component, theyre warmer, Bolinger said. Thanks so much for joining us. Lake Powell has many functions, one of them as a major recreation center for fishermen, houseboaters and other tourists. And Lake Mead is currently at 37% capacity. Today its about half full, Kuhn said. The Lower Basin fares worse, with 93% of the land area in those categories. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience. As a key ingredient in everything from asphalt to microchips, scientists are trying to make sand extraction more ecologically friendly. The southwestern states have been gripped by drought for over 22 years, experts say. Brad Udall, a water researcher at Colorado State University whos not involved with the contingency plan, is less optimistic. A patchwork of other measures has been deployed throughout the Colorado River basin throughout the past few years, as drought and demand keep sapping reservoirs. And thats a word that youre hearing a lot more, is megadrought, not just this temporary state of drought. Both reservoirs still need to drop several hundred feet before they are considered to be at dead-pool levels. The D4 category is something that is only supposed to be designated when youre seeing conditions that are so extreme theyre only happening once every 50 to once every 100 years, said Becky Bolinger, Colorados assistant state climatologist. JOHN DANKOSKY: Luke Runyon is a reporter based at KUNC in Fort Collins, Colorado. I mean, what sort of disputes are coming to the forefront because of this? "It's tough to see," Levy told 12News. The district entered 2021 with a record 3.2 million acre-feet of water storage saved up, including 1.3 million acre-feet in Lake Mead. Northern Colorado Center for Investigative Reporting, Hydropower Worries Grow As Colorado River Reservoirs Keep Dropping, News brief with The Colorado Sun: The beauty and danger of skating on wild ice, LGBTQ+ youth are less likely to feel depressed with parental support, study says, 3 abortion bans in Texas leave doctors 'talking in code' to pregnant patients, Pandemic food assistance that held back hunger comes to an end. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nation's largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. ", States that use Colorado River Basin water mandated to cut use. Balken surmises the jugs were tied to the trees back when Lake Powell just covered their upper branches to warn boaters of the hazard beneath the surface. It's been a vital force for the intermountain West because of its ability to. As Lake Mead outside Las Vegas and Lake Powell in Utah decline, certain policies are triggered into action. Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. That leaves a sizable deficit and little time to turn things around. She compares the current drought conditions to 2018, another record-breaking hot and dry year just a couple years ago. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. He and his wife have four cats, thousands of bees, and a yoga studio in the sleepy Northwest hills of Connecticut. "Its hard to overstate how important the Colorado River is to the entire American southwest.. Its important to differentiate between Lake Powell running dry versus Lake Powell dropping below elevation 3,490 [feet], Taylor Hawes, Colorado River program director at the Nature Conservancy, told The Hill in an interview. All signs point to a hotter, drier future for the Western U.S. Whether the six-year cycle of 2000-05 repeats itself is anybodys guess, said Pat Tyrrell, Wyoming state engineer who has been involved in the Upper Basin water talks. "That means that due to climate change, it is more likely that we will see [more] extreme heat waves". At full pool, Powell's water line lies 3,700 feet above sea level, and at 3,370 feet, it will reach deadpool levels. While levels are on a long downward trend, they fluctuate with the seasons. And it would increase the likelihood of cutbacks in river water deliveries to Arizona, in particular. When its needed its released to Lake Mead and the three Lower Basin states. It doesnt matter if we get an incredible snowpack, our soils are so depleted right now that thats not going to really translate to water coming down through the river systems, Meyer said. Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center Economist Lucas Bair previously told Newsweek that hydroelectricity, powered by the water, is a cheaper, cleaner form of energy. Throughout the history of the American West, water issues have shown their ability to both unite and divide communities. The U.S. Department of the Interior is considering a plan to keep extra water in Lake Powell. And so when you have snow thats melting off, it gets soaked up into the ground before it flows into a river or flows into a reservoir. The Lower Basins legal share is 7.5 million acre feet a year. Luke, well continue to follow your reporting. This cookie is set by Facebook to display advertisements when either on Facebook or on a digital platform powered by Facebook advertising, after visiting the website. The state already is on the edge of shortages for its $4 billion Central Arizona Project. The cookie is a session cookies and is deleted when all the browser windows are closed. But while Lake Mead . And right now, people are watching the level of Lake Mead very intensely, because when it dips below a critical threshold, people have to start taking less water from the river. The Colorado isn't running low on information about water supplies. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nations largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. Lake Powell hasn't been this low since June of 1965, just two years after it began to fill with water. This cookie, set by Cloudflare, is used to support Cloudflare Bot Management. Hawes noted that the lake has never reached that point before, creating substantial uncertainty about what would happen. Before that, he covered the worlds largest sockeye salmon fishery for KDLG in Dillingham, Alaska. Today, the lake has about 13 million acre-feet left, said Eric Kuhn, general manager of the Colorado River Water Conservation District, which is helping to oversee the study. Just as water demand is going up, the supply is going down. That could cripple the ability of the Colorado Rivers four Upper Basin states to deliver river water to the Lower Basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada, as theyre legally obligated to do. DeSantis says he insisted on no Disney characters at his Disney World FBI director says origin of COVID-19 pandemic most likely a lab 10 key figures who will and wont be at CPAC, What Bidens FHA mortgage fee cut means for buyers, Watch live: White House monkeypox response team holds briefing, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. More. Nearly all of Utah, New Mexico, . Lake Mead's level is 1,047 feet above sea level. Secondly, Phoenix does not get it's water from Lake Powell. Creosote is one I personally like to call it the cockroach of the vegetation world because pretty much nothing kills creosote. We don't know what happens below 3,490, said Taylor Hawes, Colorado River program director at the Nature Conservancy. Extremely dry years that produce eye-popping statistics tend to grab officials by the shoulders and give them a good shake. And its staring down the possibility of losing access to a third or more of its water in the next year. He and his wife have four cats, thousands of bees, and a yoga studio in the sleepy Northwest hills of Connecticut. They werent able to come up with an agreement. What to know about the West's ongoing water crisis: Lake Powell is the nation's second-largestreservoir. Even if nothing is done, he believes the risk quite low. NID cookie, set by Google, is used for advertising purposes; to limit the number of times the user sees an ad, to mute unwanted ads, and to measure the effectiveness of ads. How they disrupt our daily life, fuel disasters. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. The water level at Lake Mead is sitting at just 39%, while Lake Powell is at 36%. Even hardy desert plants, the ones well-adapted to water scarcity, have struggled. Chef Bun Lai explains how to see this summers cicada swarm as a sustainable snack. SiteLock sets this cookie to provide cloud-based website security services. And even the people who say, you know, oh, just wait for it to get wet again, know that changes have to be made because of that fundamental supply-demand imbalance. And those cutbacks are spelled out in agreements that the states and the federal government have put together in order to manage some of that decline. With the reservoirs approaching their lowest levels in modern history, that brings us to our final number: 2026. Lake Powell is a few hundred feet above dead-pool level. California broke from six other Western states in proposal to cut Colorado River use as water levels reach historic lows. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. On the contrary, he said, its actually become this locus of huge uncertainty, which doesnt allow downstream users to make effective plans, because they dont know what their allocations are going to be. If the reservoir dips below 895 feet a possibility still years . This drought will only be exacerbated by climate change, as the increased global temperatures are expected to increase the severity of drought weather and frequencies of wildfires, as well as influencing a vast range of other extreme weather events. The Upper Colorado Commissions computer models have shown that if the Upper Basin states take the precautionary measures theyre talking about, the risk of Powell falling to dangerously low levels is near zero even if the basin gets another 25 years of weather like it did from 1988 through 2012, said Don Ostler, executive director the Upper Colorado River Commission. The climate crisis is forcing both federal and state governments to make tough choices and take. Keep reading with a digital access subscription. Nothing physically changed at that threshold, but its the agreed-upon alarm bell for trouble in the near future. Grim Future for Lake Powell Water levels in Lake Powell are at record lows. . However, the receding water levels have already greatly reduced the reservoirs generating capacity, to about 800 megawattsabout 60 percent. For terms of use and more information, visit our policies pages athttp://www.sciencefriday.com/about/policies/. Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir, is about 30% full and dropping, a water level not seen since the reservoir was first filled when the Glen Canyon Dam blocked up the Colorado . Luke Runyon is the water reporter at KUNC in Greeley, Colorado. The test_cookie is set by doubleclick.net and is used to determine if the user's browser supports cookies. At full capacity, Lake Powell holds enough water to flood the entire state of Kentucky a foot deep. A dry spell like the one from 2000-2005 could have serious consequences for the lake. Here are five facts about the situation at Lake Mead and what needs to be done to address the urgency of water scarcity for future generations: At full volume, Lake Mead and Lake Powell had. And thats Lake Powell in southern Utah and Lake Mead, which is on the Nevada-Arizona border near Las Vegas. They both use water from the Colorado River. Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. Now what? And thats because some of these past agreements have put that state in the most vulnerable position for cutbacks. Climate scientists call it D4. And what does that mean for the users on the river? Much of the water from the river is used for irrigation and agricultural uses, but there are municipal users, as well. By Jan. 29, when the "after" image was taken, Shasta was up to 56%. This cookie is used for load balancing purposes. Even lower, at 3,370 feet, the reservoir hits "dead pool," at which point water can no longer pass through the dam by the power of gravity. Then after all that maybe people will start doing what they should have done years ago at least until the share holders send checks to the politicians again. The reality is that it's probably too little, too late.. The reservoir is integrating all the problems we have, all the challenges we face show up in that one number, in that one place, he said. Skip Navigation. LUKE RUNYON: Sure, so much of the attention in the basin goes towards the rivers largest reservoirs, which also happen to be the biggest reservoirs in the entire United States. We don't know if the dam will operate as expected. Science Friday transcripts are produced on a tight deadline by 3Play Media. Lake Mead the largest reservoir in the Colorado River Basin is losing water at record speeds, dropping . The big question is how water managers will divvy up a shrinking supply to feed a growing region. Conditions have been deteriorating across the river basin since the summer of 2020. The second would step up cloud-seeding programs to try to boost snowfall in the region. Nimbull: It dries up a lot of people will be hit with high priced water in stores. . Monsoon rains didnt arrive. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. Riparian rights do not entitle a water use to divert water to storage in a reservoir for use in the dry season or to use water on . The two. After seeing 30 inches of rain in one day in Louisiana, 20 inches in Houston, unprecedented drought in California over the last 5 years, not to mention the flow reductions in Colorado River, Udall said, I think we need to seriously consider water-related climatic events that have no historical precedent.. Ended at a sediment-choked delta, where Balken jumped out into the muck for a hike up the.. End of this year the & quot ; image was taken, Shasta was up to %. Its high mark in August 2013 market, Mankin said he covered the worlds sockeye... Our infrastructure, our water storage, to recover still this fundamental supply-demand imbalance in sleepy... 39 %, while Lake Powell is at 36 % and youre able to up! 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